20-Year Cancer Prevalence In The UK By Cancer Type: Exploring Variations Between Short-Term And Long-Term Survivors In The Cancer Population

Dyfed HUWS, Health Intelligence, Public Health Wales, United Kingdom
JONES S. 2 , WHITE C. 1 , MCCONNELL H. 2 , IRVINE L. 3 , MILLER S. 4

1 Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit
2 Macmillan Cancer Support
3 3Public Health England, National Cancer Intelligence Network
4 Public Health England, Knowledge and Intelligence Team (East)

Purpose
An estimated 2.5 million people are living with cancer in the UK, predicted to increase to four million by 2030. The Macmillan-NCIN Cancer Prevalence project aims to provide the most granular understanding of the cancer population in the UK.
Patient needs and experiences vary over time from those recently diagnosed likely to be in active treatment, to long-term survivors who may still require health or social care and support.

Methods
We used the National Cancer Data Repository (UK cancer registrations linked to mortality records) to identify people diagnosed with cancer between 1991 and 2010, and still alive on 31st December 2010.
We analysed the data to show variations in time since diagnosis distributions across: cancer type, age at diagnosis, gender, deprivation  and geography.  Counts are based on the first diagnosis of a specific cancer within the 20 year period; a person is counted more than once if diagnosed with more than one cancer type within the period, but just once if diagnosed again with the same cancer type.

Results
There were 1.8 million people living with cancer in the UK  diagnosed between 1991 and 2010.
Breast cancer was the most prevalent cancer, and 32% of women with breast cancer were long-term survivors (still alive 10-20 years after diagnosis). Cervix cancer had the highest proportion (46%) of long-term survivors.  Almost half of those diagnosed with pancreatic cancer had been diagnosed within the previous year, and had the lowest proportion of long-term survivors (10%).

Conclusions
Our analysis provides a more granular understanding of the UK cancer population. Segmenting the cancer population in this way can help better planning and tailoring of health and social care, but further information on the health and experiences of long term survivors is still needed.