Cancer Mortality Projections In South Korea Up To 2030

Mia SON, College of Medicine, Kangwon National University, South Korea
YUN J. 1

1 Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon, South Korea

Prediction of the cancer mortality is important to estimate the needs of the cancer related services and to prevent the cancer. Despite the short-term estimations of the cancer incidence and mortality were conducted up to 2015 in South Korea, long-term future projections of the cancer mortality has not been conducted. Therefore, our objective is to estimate the future cancer mortality by cancer sites up to 2030 in South Korea.
The specially programmed software, the Nordpred, is used to estimate the cancer mortality. The cancer death data from 1983 to 2012 and the population projection data from 1983 to 2032 are from Korean National Statistics Office. The age-standardized rates with the world standard population of the all cancer deaths are estimated to decline from 2008-2012 to 2028-2032 (men: -39.8%, women: -33.1%). However, the crude rates are predicted to rise (men: 29.8%, women: 24.4%) and the overall number of the cancer deaths are also estimated to increase (men: 35.5%, women: 32.3%). Several cancer deaths are projected to increase (lung, liver & gallbladder, colon & rectum, pancreas and leukemia in both sex, prostate in men, breast and ovary in women), Whereas other cancer deaths are expected to decrease (stomach, esophagus and larynx in both sex, cervix in women). The largest contribution on increasing  cancer deaths is due to aging of population in Korea. It is urgently need to set up the nationwide strategy for primary prevention, early detection and early treatment to cope with the rapidly increasing cancer due to population aging.